Challenges in Modeling Complexity of Neglected Tropical Diseases: Assessment of Visceral Leishmaniasis Dynamics in Resource Limited Settings

TL;DR

This paper reviews the challenges of modeling Visceral Leishmaniasis in resource-limited settings, identifies critical transmission mechanisms, and proposes novel mathematical models to improve disease control and elimination efforts.

Contribution

It introduces new quantitative models tailored for VL dynamics and evaluates their potential to support control programs in resource-constrained environments.

Findings

Identified non-traditional transmission mechanisms of VL

Reviewed existing models for infectious diseases relevant to VL

Proposed novel models for VL dynamics and control evaluation

Abstract

Neglected tropical diseases (NTD), particularly vector-borne diseases (VBD), account for a large proportion of the global disease burden, and their control faces several challenges including diminishing human and financial resources for those distressed from such diseases. Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL), the second-largest parasitic killer in the world (after malaria) affects poor populations in endemic countries and causes considerable cost to the affected individuals and their society. Mathematical models can serve as a critical tool for understanding the driving mechanisms of a NTD such as VL. The WHO promotes integrated control programs for VL but this policy is not well supported by systematic quantitative and dynamic evidence and so potential benefits of the policy are limited. Moreover, mathematical models can be readily developed and used to understand the functioning of the VL system cheaply and systematically. The focus of this research is three-fold: (i) to identify non-traditional but critical mechanisms for ongoing VL transmission in resource limited regions, (ii) to review mathematical models used for other infectious diseases that have the potential to capture identified factors of VL, and (iii) to suggest novel quantitative models for understanding VL dynamics and for evaluating control programs in such frameworks for achieveing VL elimination goals.