Extended Poisson-Tweedie: properties and regression models for count data

TL;DR

This paper introduces a flexible, unified regression framework based on Poisson-Tweedie models for count data, capable of handling various dispersion levels, zero inflation, and heavy tails efficiently.

Contribution

It develops a new class of Poisson-Tweedie-based regression models with an estimating function approach, extending applicability to underdispersed and zero-inflated count data.

Findings

Models are computationally fast with Newton scoring.

Estimators are unbiased and consistent in simulations.

Framework effectively handles diverse count data characteristics.

Abstract

We propose a new class of discrete generalized linear models based on the class of Poisson-Tweedie factorial dispersion models with variance of the form $\mu + \phi\mu^p$, where $\mu$ is the mean, $\phi$ and $p$ are the dispersion and Tweedie power parameters, respectively. The models are fitted by using an estimating function approach obtained by combining the quasi-score and Pearson estimating functions for estimation of the regression and dispersion parameters, respectively. This provides a flexible and efficient regression methodology for a comprehensive family of count models including Hermite, Neyman Type A, P\'olya-Aeppli, negative binomial and Poisson-inverse Gaussian. The estimating function approach allows us to extend the Poisson-Tweedie distributions to deal with underdispersed count data by allowing negative values for the dispersion parameter $\phi$. Furthermore, the Poisson-Tweedie family can automatically adapt to highly skewed count data with excessive zeros, without the need to introduce zero-inflated or hurdle components, by the simple estimation of the power parameter. Thus, the proposed models offer a unified framework to deal with under, equi, overdispersed, zero-inflated and heavy-tailed count data. The computational implementation of the proposed models is fast, relying only on a simple Newton scoring algorithm. Simulation studies showed that the estimating function approach provides unbiased and consistent estimators for both regression and dispersion parameters. We highlight the ability of the Poisson-Tweedie distributions to deal with count data through a consideration of dispersion, zero-inflated and heavy tail indices, and illustrate its application with four data analyses. We provide an \texttt{R} implementation and the data sets as supplementary materials.