Operational optical turbulence forecast for the Service Mode of top-class ground based telescopes

TL;DR

This study demonstrates the successful use of a mesoscale model to forecast optical turbulence and atmospheric parameters at major observatory sites, enabling operational support for ground-based telescopes and adaptive optics systems.

Contribution

The paper presents a validated mesoscale modeling approach for operational optical turbulence forecasting at Cerro Paranal and Cerro Armazones, advancing the automation of site-specific atmospheric predictions.

Findings

High-resolution CN2 profile forecasting up to 150 m vertical resolution

Successful validation of atmospheric parameter predictions for ESO sites

Implementation of automatic operational forecasting systems planned for 2016

Abstract

In this contribution we present the most relevant results obtained in the context of a feasibility study (MOSE) undertaken for ESO. The principal aim of the project was to quantify the performances of a mesoscale model (Astro-Meso-NH code) in forecasting all the main atmospherical parameters relevant for the ground-based astronomical observations and the optical turbulence (CN2 and associated integrated astroclimatic parameters) above Cerro Paranal (site of the VLT) and Cerro Armazones (site of the E-ELT). A detailed analysis on the score of success of the predictive capacities of the system have been carried out for all the astroclimatic as well as for the atmospherical parameters. Considering the excellent results that we obtained, this study proved the opportunity to implement on these two sites an automatic system to be run nightly in an operational configuration to support the scheduling of scientific programs as well as of astronomical facilities (particularly those supported by AO systems) of the VLT and the E-ELT. At the end of 2016 a new project for the implementation of a demonstrator of an operational system to be run on the two ESO's sites will start. Our team is also responsible for the implementation of a similar automatic system at Mt.Graham, site of the LBT (ALTA Project). Our system/method will permit therefore to make a step ahead in the framework of the Service Mode for new generation telescopes. Among the most exciting achieved results we cite the fact that we proved to be able to forecast CN2 profiles with a vertical resolution as high as 150 m. Such a feature is particularly crucial for all WFAO systems that require such detailed information on the OT vertical stratification on the whole 20 km above the ground. This important achievement tells us that all the WFAO systems can rely on automatic systems that are able to support their optimized use.