Modelling the covariance structure in marginal multivariate count models: Hunting in Bioko Island

TL;DR

This paper introduces a flexible statistical framework for modeling multivariate count data with complex covariance structures, applied to bushmeat hunting data on Bioko Island to assess species decline.

Contribution

The study develops a novel covariance modeling approach using covariance link functions and the generalized Kronecker product for multivariate count data with longitudinal structures.

Findings

Detected statistical evidence of decline in hunted species over time.

Effectively modeled complex covariance structures in unbalanced longitudinal count data.

Provided insights into species depletion trends relevant for conservation policies.

Abstract

We present a flexible statistical modelling framework to deal with multivariate count data along with longitudinal and repeated measures structures. The covariance structure for each response variable is defined in terms of a covariance link function combined with a matrix linear predictor involving known matrices. To specify the joint covariance matrix for the multivariate response vector the generalized Kronecker product is employed. The count nature of the data is taken into account by means of the power dispersion function associated with the Poisson-Tweedie distribution. Furthermore, the score information criterion is extended for selecting the components of the matrix linear predictor. We analyse a dataset consisting of prey animals (the main hunted species, the blue duiker \textit{Philantomba monticola} and other taxa) shot or snared for bushmeat by $52$ commercial hunters over a $33$-month period in Pico Basil\'e, Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. By taking into account the severely unbalanced repeated measures and longitudinal structures induced by the hunters and a set of potential covariates (which in turn affect the mean and covariance structures), our method can be used to indicate whether there was statistical evidence of a decline in blue duikers and other species hunted during the study period. Determining whether observed drops in the number of animals hunted are indeed true is crucial to assess whether species depletion effects are taking place in exploited areas anywhere in the world. We suggest that our method can be used to more accurately understand the trajectories of animals hunted for commercial or subsistence purposes, and establish clear policies to ensure sustainable hunting practices.