Fat tailed distributions for deaths in conflicts and disasters

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the statistical distribution of human deaths in conflicts and natural disasters, revealing power law patterns that suggest underlying universal mechanisms in these extreme events.

Contribution

It uncovers universal power law decay in death tolls across diverse conflict and disaster types, indicating common underlying dynamics.

Findings

Power law decay observed in death distributions.

Similar exponents found across different event types.

Resemblance between natural and man-made disaster statistics.

Abstract

We study the statistics of human deaths from wars, conflicts, similar man-made conflicts as well as natural disasters. The probability distribution of number of people killed in natural disasters as well as man made situations show power law decay for the largest sizes, with similar exponent values. Comparisons with natural disasters, when event sizes are measured in terms of physical quantities (e.g., energy released in earthquake, volume of rainfall, land area affected in forest fires, etc.) also show striking resemblances. The universal patterns in their statistics suggest that some subtle similarities in their mechanisms and dynamics might be responsible.