On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data

TL;DR

This study proposes a method for forecasting regional seismic activity by analyzing geomagnetic and Earth tide data, focusing on Sun-Moon tide extremes and using statistical validation across multiple European stations.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining geomagnetic signals and Earth tide data for earthquake prediction, validated with data from INTERMAGNET stations in Europe.

Findings

Geomagnetic signals correlate with seismic activity periods.

The method predicts earthquakes with measurable reliability.

Validation across multiple stations supports its potential effectiveness.

Abstract

In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector components F for calculating the time variance Geomag Signal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day Geomag Signal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic when, regional precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of predicted and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the predicted earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy, L'Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the when, where and how earthquake prediction problem are shortly described.