Fluctuation of USA Gold Price - Revisited with Chaos-based Complex Network Method

TL;DR

This paper applies chaos-based Visibility Graph Analysis to study 25 years of US gold price fluctuations, revealing a quantitative parameter that explains and potentially forecasts gold price behavior.

Contribution

It introduces the use of chaos-based Visibility Graph Analysis for analyzing gold price time series, providing a new quantitative approach for understanding and forecasting fluctuations.

Findings

A quantitative parameter explains gold price fluctuations.

The method offers reliable analysis with finite data.

Potential for forecasting gold prices using the identified parameter.

Abstract

We give emphasis on the use of chaos-based rigorous nonlinear technique called Visibility Graph Analysis, to study one economic time series - gold price of USA. This method can offer reliable results with fiinite data. This paper reports the result of such an analysis on the times series depicting the fluctuation of gold price of USA for the span of 25 years(1990 - 2013). This analysis reveals that a quantitative parameter from the theory can explain satisfactorily the real life nature of fluctuation of gold price of USA and hence building a strong database in terms of a quantitative parameter which can eventually be used for forecasting purpose.