Effects of Sea Level Rise on Economy of the United States

TL;DR

This study uses econometric methods to analyze the historical economic impact of sea level rise across US counties, finding no consistent significant effect on economic growth, challenging prior assumptions.

Contribution

It provides the first ex post empirical analysis of sea level rise effects on the US economy using robust econometric approaches.

Findings

Most estimates show insignificant effects of sea level rise on growth.

Some evidence suggests a positive effect, but it is not statistically stable.

Results contradict previous predictive studies on sea level rise impacts.

Abstract

We report the first ex post study of the economic impact of sea level rise. We apply two econometric approaches to estimate the past effects of sea level rise on the economy of the USA, viz. Barro type growth regressions adjusted for spatial patterns and a matching estimator. Unit of analysis is 3063 counties of the USA. We fit growth regressions for 13 time periods and we estimated numerous varieties and robustness tests for both growth regressions and matching estimator. Although there is some evidence that sea level rise has a positive effect on economic growth, in most specifications the estimated effects are insignificant. We therefore conclude that there is no stable, significant effect of sea level rise on economic growth. This finding contradicts previous ex ante studies.