A new MC-based method to evaluate the fission fraction uncertainty at reactor neutrino experiment

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Monte Carlo-based method to evaluate fission fraction uncertainties and covariances in reactor neutrino experiments, revealing how these vary with burnup and impact flux predictions.

Contribution

A novel Monte Carlo method for evaluating covariance coefficients between isotopes, accounting for burnup effects in fission fraction uncertainties.

Findings

Covariance coefficients vary with reactor burnup, changing from positive to negative.

The antineutrino flux uncertainty is 0.55%, about 8.3% smaller than previous estimates.

The method ensures consistency between fission fraction uncertainties and covariance matrices.

Abstract

Uncertainties of fission fraction is an important uncertainty source for the antineutrino flux prediction in a reactor antineutrino experiment. A new MC-based method of evaluating the covariance coefficients between isotopes was proposed. It was found that the covariance coefficients will varying with reactor burnup and which may change from positive to negative because of fissioning balance effect, for example, the covariance coefficient between $^{235}$U and $^{239}$Pu changes from 0.15 to -0.13. Using the equation between fission fraction and atomic density, the consistent of uncertainty of fission fraction and the covariance matrix were obtained. The antineutrino flux uncertainty is 0.55\% which does not vary with reactor burnup, and the new value is about 8.3\% smaller.