A Potential Correlation Between the Temperature of the Pacific Ocean and Data from Google Trends May Yield a Warning Sign for the Outbreak of Zika

TL;DR

This paper proposes an early warning system for Zika outbreaks based on Pacific Ocean temperature data, verified with Google Trends data from Colombia, aiming to aid preventive health measures.

Contribution

It introduces a novel correlation-based early warning method linking ocean temperature indices with disease outbreak signals.

Findings

Pacific Ocean temperature rise correlates with Zika outbreaks.

Google Trends data effectively reflect outbreak trends.

The proposed system shows potential for early detection.

Abstract

There has been a large number of reported cases of the occurrence of Zika in different countries in 2016 and it is necessary to develop an early warning system to initiate preventive campaigns against the disease. A potential early warning system based on the rise in ocean temperature of the Pacific Ni\~no Index is proposed. The efficacy is verified using data for the outbreak in Colombia as obtained from Google Trends.