Determination of the neutrino mass hierarchy with a new statistical method

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new statistical method to determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, applied to NOvA data, showing improved significance over traditional approaches and promising future results with increased exposure.

Contribution

A novel statistical approach for neutrino mass hierarchy determination that enhances significance compared to traditional methods, demonstrated on NOvA experimental data.

Findings

Substantial gain in significance over traditional methods.

Potential to exclude inverted hierarchy with increased exposure.

Analysis of preliminary 2016 NOvA results.

Abstract

Nowadays neutrino physics is undergoing a change of perspective: the discovery period is almost over and the phase of precise measurements is starting. Despite the limited statistics collected for some variables, the three--flavour oscillation neutrino framework is strengthening well. In this framework a new method has been developed to determine the neutrino mass ordering, one of the still unknown and most relevant parameters. The method is applied to the 2015 results of the NOvA experiment for $\nu_\mu \rightarrow \nu_e$ appearance, including its systematic errors. A substantial gain in significance is obtained compared to the traditional $\Delta\chi^2$ approach. Perspectives are provided for future results obtainable by NOvA with larger exposures. Assuming the number of the 2015 $\nu_e$ observed events scales with the exposure, an increase in only a factor three would exclude the inverted hierarchy at more than 95\% C.L. over the full range of the CP violating phase. The preliminary 2016 NOvA measurement on \numunue appearance has also been analyzed.