A mathematical model of demand-supply dynamics with collectability and saturation factors

TL;DR

This paper presents a mathematical model of demand-supply dynamics incorporating collectability and saturation, revealing complex behaviors like chaos, multiple attractors, and market phenomena such as cycles and crashes.

Contribution

It introduces a novel demand-supply model that captures chaos, multiple attractors, and fractal basin boundaries, extending traditional market equilibrium analysis.

Findings

Chaos occurs when demand and supply fluctuations are strong.

Existence of co-existing periodic attractors near chaos.

Identification of a fractal basin boundary leading to market unpredictability.

Abstract

We introduce a mathematical model on the dynamics of demand and supply incorporating collectability and saturation factors. Our analysis shows that when the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, there is chaos in the demand-supply dynamics. Our numerical simulation shows that such a chaos is not an attractor (i.e. dynamics is not approaching the chaos), instead a periodic attractor (of period 3 under the Poincar\'e period map) exists near the chaos, and co-exists with another periodic attractor (of period 1 under the Poincar\'e period map) near the market equilibrium. Outside the basins of attraction of the two periodic attractors, the dynamics approaches infinity indicating market irrational exuberance or flash crash. The period 3 attractor represents the product's market cycle of growth and recession, while period 1 attractor near the market equilibrium represents the regular fluctuation of the product's market. Thus our model captures more market phenomena besides Marshall's market equilibrium. When the fluctuation of the determinants of demand and supply is strong enough, a three leaf danger zone exists where the basins of attraction of all attractors intertwine and fractal basin boundaries are formed. Small perturbations in the danger zone can lead to very different attractors. That is, small perturbations in the danger zone can cause the market to experience oscillation near market equilibrium, large growth and recession cycle, and irrational exuberance or flash crash.