A non-equilibrium formulation of food security resilience

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new framework for quantifying food security resilience based on long-term trends and shock effects, applicable to various units and data types, especially in rapidly changing contexts.

Contribution

It provides a formal, empirically sound method to measure food security resilience using high-frequency data, addressing limitations of equilibrium-based models.

Findings

Resilient countries are not necessarily those with high or stable kilocalorie intake.

Long-term welfare dynamics are crucial for food security policies.

The framework is applicable to diverse units and data types.

Abstract

Resilience, the ability to recover from adverse events ("shocks"), is of fundamental importance to food security. This is especially true in poor countries, where basic needs are frequently threatened by economic, environmental, and health shocks. An empirically sound formalization of the concept of food security resilience, however, is lacking. Here we introduce a general framework for quantifying resilience based on a simple definition: a unit is resilient if $(a)$ its long-term food security trend is not deteriorating and $(b)$ the effects of shocks on this trend do not persist over time. Our approach can be applied to any food security variable for which high-frequency time-series data is available, can accommodate any unit of analysis (e.g., individuals, households, countries), and is especially useful in rapidly changing contexts wherein standard equilibrium-based economic models are ineffective. We illustrate our method with an analysis of per capita kilocalorie availability for 161 countries between 1961 and 2011. We find that resilient countries are not necessarily those that are characterized by high levels or less volatile fluctuations of kilocalorie intake. Accordingly, food security policies and programs will need to be tailored not only to welfare levels at any one time, but also to long-run welfare dynamics.