A Contextual Model Of The Secessionist Rebellion in Eastern Ukraine

TL;DR

This paper develops a contextual choice model to analyze the socio-political factors influencing individuals' participation in the pro-secessionist rebellion in Eastern Ukraine during 2013-2014, integrating rational choice and behavioral considerations.

Contribution

It introduces a novel contextual choice model that incorporates behavioral factors to explain rebellion participation, extending existing rational choice theories.

Findings

Model predicts socio-political conditions conducive to rebellion.

Highlights importance of behavioral factors in rebellion dynamics.

Provides insights into the characteristics sustaining hierarchical rebel movements.

Abstract

This paper explores the possible contextual factors that drove some individuals to lead, and others to join the pro-secessionist rebellion in the 2013-2014 conflict in Eastern Ukraine. We expand on the existing rational choice literature on revolutionary participation and rebellious movements by building a contextual choice model accounting for both cost-benefit and behavioral considerations taken by Pro-Russian militants and rebels in the region of Donbass. Our model generates predictions about the characteristics of the socio-political-cultural context that are most likely to ignite and sustain hierarchical rebel movements similar to those in Ukraine.