The Galactic Nova Rate Revisited

TL;DR

This paper estimates the Galactic nova rate by extrapolating observed bright novae, applying corrections for incompleteness, and using Monte Carlo simulations, resulting in a refined rate of approximately 50 per year.

Contribution

It introduces improved correction methods and a Monte Carlo approach to better estimate the Galactic nova rate, considering different stellar population models.

Findings

Estimated Galactic nova rate of about 50 per year.

Models with luminous disk novae predict lower rates.

Results align better with extragalactic survey data.

Abstract

Despite its fundamental importance, a reliable estimate of the Galactic nova rate has remained elusive. Here, the overall Galactic nova rate is estimated by extrapolating the observed rate for novae reaching $m\leq2$ to include the entire Galaxy using a two component disk plus bulge model for the distribution of stars in the Milky Way. The present analysis improves on previous work by considering important corrections for incompleteness in the observed rate of bright novae and by employing a Monte Carlo analysis to better estimate the uncertainty in the derived nova rates. Several models are considered to account for differences in the assumed properties of bulge and disk nova populations and in the absolute magnitude distribution. The simplest models, which assume uniform properties between bulge and disk novae, predict Galactic nova rates of $\sim$50 to in excess of 100 per year, depending on the assumed incompleteness at bright magnitudes. Models where the disk novae are assumed to be more luminous than bulge novae are explored, and predict nova rates up to 30% lower, in the range of $\sim$35 to $\sim$75 per year. An average of the most plausible models yields a rate of $50_{-23}^{+31}$ yr$^{-1}$, which is arguably the best estimate currently available for the nova rate in the Galaxy. Virtually all models produce rates that represent significant increases over recent estimates, and bring the Galactic nova rate into better agreement with that expected based on comparison with the latest results from extragalactic surveys.