A Formal Calculus for International Relations Computation and Evaluation

TL;DR

This paper introduces a formal relation calculus for international relations using mathematical models like Bayesian inference and Dempster-Shafer theory, enabling objective computation of trust and relations.

Contribution

It proposes a novel relation algebra method for international relations computation, filling a gap in existing literature and supporting decision-making in government and defense sectors.

Findings

Demonstrated the method with three real-world case studies.

The calculus enables objective and computable relation assessments.

Supports decision-making for government agencies.

Abstract

This publication presents a relation computation or calculus for international relations using a mathematical modeling. It examined trust for international relations and its calculus, which related to Bayesian inference, Dempster-Shafer theory and subjective logic. Based on an observation in the literature, we found no literature discussing the calculus method for the international relations. To bridge this research gap, we propose a relation algebra method for international relations computation. The proposed method will allow a relation computation which is previously subjective and incomputable. We also present three international relations as case studies to demonstrate the proposed method is a real-world scenario. The method will deliver the relation computation for the international relations that to support decision makers in a government such as foreign ministry, defense ministry, presidential or prime minister office. The Department of Defense (DoD) may use our method to determine a nation that can be identified as a friendly, neutral or hostile nation.