Dynamic Modeling with Conditional Quantile Trajectories for Longitudinal Snippet Data, with Application to Cognitive Decline of Alzheimer's Patients

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel dynamic modeling approach using conditional quantile trajectories to analyze short, sparse longitudinal data without a clear time reference, exemplified by Alzheimer's disease progression.

Contribution

It develops a new method based on conditional quantile trajectories for monotonic processes, addressing data sparsity and unknown disease onset time in longitudinal studies.

Findings

Uniformly consistent estimates of quantile trajectories

Effective modeling of deterioration processes like hippocampal volume decline

Application to Alzheimer's disease data demonstrates practical utility

Abstract

Longitudinal data are often plagued with sparsity of time points where measurements are available. The functional data analysis perspective has been shown to provide an effective and flexible approach to address this problem for the case where measurements are sparse but their times are randomly distributed over an interval. Here we focus on a different scenario where available data can be characterized as snippets, which are very short stretches of longitudinal measurements. For each subject the stretch of available data is much shorter than the time frame of interest, a common occurrence in accelerated longitudinal studies. An added challenge is introduced if a time proxy that is basic for usual longitudinal modeling is not available. This situation arises in the case of Alzheimer's disease and comparable scenarios, where one is interested in time dynamics of declining performance, but the time of disease onset is unknown and the chronological age does not provide a meaningful time reference for longitudinal modeling. Our main methodological contribution is to address this problem with a novel approach. Key quantities for our approach are conditional quantile trajectories for monotonic processes that emerge as solutions of a dynamic system, and for which we obtain uniformly consistent estimates. These trajectories are shown to be useful to describe processes that quantify deterioration over time, such as hippocampal volumes in Alzheimer's patients.