Noise Induced Synchronization on Collective Dynamics of Citrus Production

TL;DR

This paper models how noise can induce synchronized alternate bearing in citrus tree populations, revealing potential large-scale production fluctuations in agricultural markets.

Contribution

It introduces a noise-induced synchronization model for citrus trees' alternate bearing, extending existing resource budget models to population-level dynamics.

Findings

Noise can synchronize tree production cycles.

Large-scale market fluctuations are theoretically possible.

Model suggests significant impact of stochastic effects on crop yields.

Abstract

It is very common to observe nonlinear features in agricultural and ecological systems. For example, in tree crop production, alternate bearing is well known phenomena caused by nonlinear dynamics. Production of single tree of Citrus Unshiu trees is recognized to be driven by a mechanistic process modeled with the so-called "resource budget model", which demonstrates phenomenon of alternate bearing. However, the term of alternative bearing is used not only for an individual tree's production but also for total production of a large sized population of trees. In this paper, we developed noise induced uncoupled dynamics model for population alternate bearing based on Isagi's resource budget model. Based on numerical experiments with the developed model, theoretical possibility of a substantial alternate bearing effect even in a national market was proposed.