Fairly Random: The Impact of Winning the Toss on the Probability of Winning

TL;DR

This study analyzes how winning the toss in cricket influences match outcomes, finding a small but significant advantage that varies with match conditions and team competitiveness.

Contribution

It provides a large-scale empirical estimate of the toss advantage in cricket, highlighting its dependence on match conditions and team parity.

Findings

Winning the toss increases winning probability by about 2.8%.

The toss advantage is larger in day/night matches.

The advantage varies with team strength and match conditions.

Abstract

In a competitive sport, every little thing matters. Yet, many sports leave some large levers out of the reach of the teams, and in the hands of fate. In cricket, world's second most popular sport by some measures, one such lever---the toss---has been subject to much recent attention. Using a large novel dataset of 44,224 cricket matches, we estimate the impact of winning the toss on the probability of winning. The data suggest that winning the toss increases the chance of winning by a small ($\sim$ 2.8\%) but significant margin. The advantage varies heftily and systematically, by how closely matched the competing teams are, and by playing conditions---tautologically, winning the toss in conditions where the toss grants a greater advantage, for e.g., in day and night matches, has a larger impact on the probability of winning.