A baseline-free method to identify responsive customers on dynamic time-of-use tariffs

TL;DR

This paper introduces a baseline-free, non-parametric method to analyze customer responsiveness to dynamic time-of-use electricity tariffs, enabling retrospective assessment without baseline demand models, demonstrated on UK trial data.

Contribution

It proposes a novel baseline-free approach for evaluating customer response to dynamic tariffs, applicable with or without control group data.

Findings

Effective retrospective analysis of customer responsiveness.

Applicable with control group data for absolute responsiveness.

Demonstrated on UK's first dynamic pricing trial.

Abstract

Dynamic time-of-use tariffs incentivise changes in electricity consumption. This paper presents a non-parametric method to retrospectively analyse consumption data and quantify the significance of a customer's observed response to a dynamic price signal without constructing a baseline demand model. If data from a control group is available, this can be used to infer customer responsiveness - individually and collectively - on an absolute scale. The results are illustrated using data from the Low Carbon London project, which included the UK's first dynamic time-of-use pricing trial.