Bayes' theorem and early solar short-lived radionuclides: the case for an unexceptional origin for the solar system

TL;DR

This paper argues that the short-lived radionuclides found in the early solar system are typical of star-forming regions, suggesting an unexceptional, common origin rather than an exotic event like a nearby supernova.

Contribution

It provides a probabilistic analysis showing that the radionuclide abundances are consistent with typical galactic star-forming environments, challenging previous assumptions of an extraordinary origin.

Findings

Radionuclide abundances are consistent with common star-forming regions.

Exotic nucleosynthetic sources are not necessary to explain early solar system radionuclides.

The early solar system's radiochemistry results from averaging in molecular clouds.

Abstract

The presence of excesses of short-lived radionuclides in the early solar system evidenced in meteorites has been taken as testament to close encounters with exotic nucleosynthetic sources, including supernovae or AGB stars. An analysis of the likelihoods associated with different sources of these extinct nuclides in the early solar system indicates that rather than being exotic, their abundances were typical of star-forming regions like those observed today in the Galaxy. The radiochemistry of the early solar system is therefore unexceptional, being the consequence of extensive averaging of molecular cloud solids.