Analysis of strategic and deterrence equilibrium by modeling with a Van der Waals gas

TL;DR

This paper models deterrence equilibrium using a Van der Waals gas analogy, incorporating non-rational factors and applying it to India-Pakistan dynamics to understand stability influences.

Contribution

It introduces a novel physical model for deterrence that accounts for non-rational factors and applies thermodynamics concepts to international security scenarios.

Findings

Model represents MAD theory without internal instability factors.

Inclusion of economic and political factors alters deterrence stability.

Application to India-Pakistan shows diplomacy impacts equilibrium.

Abstract

In this paper we are going to propose a physical model that can represent a simple deterrence equilibrium situation, it is on based theory of unitary rational actors. This theory takes in account that a state is composed of a large number of people and a detailed study of the dynamics of any individual it is impossible. This situation, in Physics, is similar for gases, which are composed by a huge number of molecules and the study dynamics for one is impossible. Then a common approach, in this case, is the thermodynamics one. We only look to the macroscopic properties of the gas such as pressure, temperature and volume. Then in this sense thermodynamics could help to use theory of unitary rational actors also considering some non-rational factors. Firstly we are going to see how this model represents the Mutual assured destruction (MAD) theory if the influence of internal (economical, political,due to non state actors) instability and o conventional military forces are not taken in account. Secondly we are going to consider the factors just mentioned in our model and we are going to study their influence on deterrence stability: MAD will not be anymore effective. Finally we emphasize that the proposed model can simulate the reaction to the interest of a neighbour state or the international community on the deterrence equilibrium situation. In particular we are going to apply this model to the India-Pakistan deterrence equilibrium and see how the influence of International soft diplomacy can change the situation.