Prospects for annihilating Dark Matter towards Milky Way's dwarf galaxies by the Cherenkov Telescope Array

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the Cherenkov Telescope Array's ability to detect dark matter annihilation signals from Milky Way dwarf galaxies, highlighting the importance of combined spectral and spatial analysis for improved sensitivity.

Contribution

It presents the first detailed sensitivity estimates for CTA targeting dwarf galaxies, incorporating recent J-factor data, background models, and combined spatial-spectral analysis techniques.

Findings

Joint spectral and spatial analysis enhances CTA sensitivity.

Ursa Minor and Ursa Major II are the most promising targets.

Sensitivity estimates neglecting systematics are optimistic.

Abstract

We derive the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) sensitivity to dark matter (DM) annihilation in several primary channels, over a broad range of DM masses. These sensitivities are estimated when CTA is pointed towards a large sample of Milky Way's dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) with promising $J$-factors and small statistical uncertainties. This analysis neglects systematic uncertainties, which we estimate at the level of at least 1 dex. We also present sensitivities on the annihilation cross section from a combined analysis of 4 dSphs. We assess the CTA sensitivity by: $i)$ using, for each dSph, a recent determination of the $J$-factor and its statistical error; $ii)$ considering the most up-to-date cosmic ray background; and $iii)$ including both spatial and spectral terms in the likelihood analysis. We find that a joint spectral and spatial analysis improves the CTA sensitivity, in particular for primary channels with sharp features in the $\gamma$-ray energy spectrum and for dSphs with steep $J$-factor profiles, as deduced from the internal kinematics. The greatest sensitivities are obtained for observations of Ursa Minor among the classical dSphs and of Ursa Major II for ultra-faint dSphs.