Why is there no von Neumann probe on Ceres? Error catastrophe can explain the Fermi-Hart Paradox

TL;DR

This paper proposes that error catastrophes in self-replicating probes prevent their spread across the galaxy, explaining the absence of von Neumann probes in our solar system and addressing the Fermi-Hart Paradox.

Contribution

It introduces a universal error catastrophe model for self-replicating probes, providing a new explanation for the lack of extraterrestrial probes in our solar system.

Findings

Error propagation leads to probe breakdown in all designs.

Probes cannot reliably spread beyond their origin due to finite accuracy.

Our solar system's isolation is consistent with widespread but contained civilizations.

Abstract

It has been argued that self-replicating robotic probes could spread to all stars of our galaxy within a timespan that is tiny on cosmological scales, even if they travel well below the speed of light. The apparent absence of such von Neumann probes in our own solar system then needs an explanation that holds for all possible extraterrestrial civilisations. Here I propose such a solution, which is based on a runaway error propagation that can occur in any self-replicating system with finite accuracy of its components. Under universally applicable assumptions (finite resources and finite lifespans) it follows that an optimal probe design always leads to an error catastrophe and breakdown of the probes. Thus, there might be many advanced civilizations in our galaxy, each surrounded by their own small sphere of self-replicating probes. But unless our own solar system has the extraordinary luck to be close enough to one of these civilizations, none of these probes will ever reach us.