Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments: The density-dependent case

TL;DR

This paper investigates the long-term dynamics of structured populations in heterogeneous environments using stochastic differential equations, establishing conditions for persistence or extinction based on the stochastic growth rate.

Contribution

It extends existing models by incorporating general density-dependent growth, degeneracy in environmental noise, and proves the robustness of persistence under perturbations.

Findings

Positive growth rate leads to population persistence with a unique invariant measure.

Negative growth rate causes populations to go extinct exponentially fast.

In the two-patch case, increased dispersal decreases the stochastic growth rate.

Abstract

This work is devoted to studying the dynamics of a structured population that is subject to the combined effects of environmental stochasticity, competition for resources, spatio-temporal heterogeneity and dispersal. The population is spread throughout $n$ patches whose population abundances are modelled as the solutions of a system of nonlinear stochastic differential equations living on $[0,\infty)^n$. We prove that $r$, the stochastic growth rate of the total population in the absence of competition, determines the long-term behaviour of the population. The parameter $r$ can be expressed as the Lyapunov exponent of an associated linearized system of stochastic differential equations. Detailed analysis shows that if $r>0$, the population abundances converge polynomially fast to a unique invariant probability measure on $(0,\infty)^n$, while when $r<0$, the population abundances of the patches converge almost surely to $0$ exponentially fast. This generalizes and extends the results of Evans et al (2014 J. Math. Biol.) and proves one of their conjectures. Compared to recent developments, our model incorporates very general density-dependent growth rates and competition terms. Furthermore, we prove that persistence is robust to small, possibly density dependent, perturbations of the growth rates, dispersal matrix and covariance matrix of the environmental noise. Our work allows the environmental noise driving our system to be degenerate. This is relevant from a biological point of view since, for example, the environments of the different patches can be perfectly correlated. As an example we fully analyze the two-patch case, $n=2$, and show that the stochastic growth rate is a decreasing function of the dispersion rate. In particular, coupling two sink patches can never yield persistence, in contrast to the results from the non-degenerate setting treated by Evans et al.