The first gravitational-wave burst GW150914, as predicted by the scenario machine

TL;DR

This paper discusses the prediction of the first gravitational-wave burst GW150914 by the Scenario Machine, comparing predicted binary black hole parameters and event rates with actual observations, and explaining mass differences.

Contribution

It presents the first prediction of GW150914 using the Scenario Machine and analyzes binary black hole parameters in relation to observations.

Findings

Predicted event rates align with observations.

Mass ratios of GW150914 components match initial binary distributions.

Explains differences between observed black hole masses and X-ray Nova systems.

Abstract

The Advanced LIGO observatory recently reported (Abbott et al., 2016a) the first direct detection of gravitational waves predicted by Einstein (1916). The detection of this event was predicted in 1997 on the basis of the Scenario Machine population synthesis calculations (Lipunov et al., NewA, 2, 43). Now we discuss the parameters of binary black holes and event rates predicted by different scenarios of binary evolution. We give a simple explanation of the big difference between detected black hole masses and the mean black hole masses observed in of X-ray Nova systems. The proximity of the masses of the components of GW150914 is in good agreement with the observed initial mass ratio distribution in massive binary systems, as is used in Scenario Machine calculations for massive binaries.