Atypical viral dynamics from transport through popular places

TL;DR

This paper introduces a minimal dynamical model that captures how visitor flux through popular places influences viral spread, revealing diverse infection patterns that align with real-world social contagion data.

Contribution

The study develops an analytic, minimal model linking mobility and occupancy to viral dynamics, providing new insights into infection profiles in crowded spaces.

Findings

Model produces diverse infection profiles

Profiles match real-world social contagion data

Analytic approach enables understanding of viral spread patterns

Abstract

The flux of visitors through popular places undoubtedly influences viral spreading -- from H1N1 and Zika viruses spreading through physical spaces such as airports, to rumors and ideas spreading though online spaces such as chatrooms and social media. However there is a lack of understanding of the types of viral dynamics that can result. Here we present a minimal dynamical model which focuses on the time-dependent interplay between the {\em mobility through} and the {\em occupancy of} such spaces. Our generic model permits analytic analysis while producing a rich diversity of infection profiles in terms of their shapes, durations, and intensities. The general features of these theoretical profiles compare well to real-world data of recent social contagion phenomena.