Hawking Radiation and Analogue Experiments: A Bayesian Analysis

TL;DR

This paper uses Bayesian analysis to evaluate the epistemic value of analogue experiments, especially for Hawking radiation, showing how different realizations can confirm theoretical predictions through universality arguments.

Contribution

It formalizes the confirmatory power of analogue experiments using Bayesian methods and models the confirmation saturation across multiple realizations.

Findings

Analogue experiments can be confirmatory based on universality.

Confirmation saturation occurs with multiple realizations.

Different analogue systems yield varying levels of confirmation.

Abstract

We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First, we prove that such experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to 'universality arguments'. Second, we provide a formal model for the scaling behaviour of the confirmation measure for multiple distinct realisations of the analogue system and isolate a generic saturation feature. Finally, we demonstrate that different potential analogue realisations could provide different levels of confirmation. Our results provide a basis both to formalise the epistemic value of analogue experiments that have been conducted and to advise scientists as to the respective epistemic value of future analogue experiments.