A note on the ranking of earthquake forecasts
G. Molchan
TL;DR
This paper examines how to rank earthquake forecasts using statistical quality measures, analyzing different ranking methods including the pari-mutuel gambling approach to improve forecast evaluation.
Contribution
It introduces a framework for ranking earthquake forecasts based on statistical criteria and evaluates existing ranking methods within this framework.
Findings
The pari-mutuel gambling method is analyzed for earthquake forecast ranking.
Simple statistical requirements for forecast quality measures are formulated.
Insights into the effectiveness of different ranking methods are provided.
Abstract
The ranking problem of earthquake forecasts is considered. We formulate simple statistical requirements to forecasting quality measure R and analyze some R-ranking methods on this basis, in particular, the pari-mutuel gambling method by Zechar&Zhuang (2014).
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Taxonomy
TopicsFinancial Risk and Volatility Modeling · Advanced Statistical Methods and Models · Statistical and numerical algorithms