On the identification of time interval threshold in the twin-CME scenario

TL;DR

This study refines the understanding of the twin-CME scenario by identifying 13 hours as the optimal time lag for predicting large solar energetic particle events, confirming twin CMEs' higher likelihood of causing such events.

Contribution

It determines the most appropriate time lag between twin CMEs for SEP event prediction, improving the predictive accuracy of the twin-CME scenario.

Findings

13 hours is the optimal time lag for twin-CME analysis

Twin CMEs are more likely to cause large SEP events than single CMEs

The study enhances space weather prediction models

Abstract

Recently it has been suggested that the "twin-CME" scenario Li.etal2012 may be a very effective mechanism in causing extreme Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and in particular Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. Ding.etal2013 performed a statistical examination of the twin-CME scenario with a total of $126$ fast and wide western Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). They found that CMEs having a preceding CME with a speed $>$ 300 $km/s$ within $9$ hours from the same active region have larger probability of leading to large SEP events than CMEs that do not have preceding CMEs. The choice of $9$ hours being the time lag $\tau$ between the preceding CME and the main CME was based on some crude estimates of the decay time of the turbulence downstream of the shock driven by the preceding CME. In this work, we examine this choice. For the $126$ fast wide CMEs examined in Ding.etal2013, we vary the time lag $\tau$ from $1$ hour to $24$ hours with an increment of $1$ hour. By considering three quantities whose values depend on the choice of this time lag $\tau$, we show that the choice of $13$ hours for $\tau$ is more appropriate. Our study confirms our earlier result that twin CMEs are more likely to lead to large SEP events than single fast CMEs. The results shown here are of great relevance to space weather studies.