A Mathematical Trust Algebra for International Nation Relations Computation and Evaluation

TL;DR

This paper introduces a mathematical trust algebra for international relations that enables objective and computable trust assessments, aiding government decision-makers in foreign policy and defense strategies.

Contribution

It proposes a novel trust computation method based on Bayesian inference, Dempster-Shafer theory, and subjective logic, making trust evaluation more objective and practical.

Findings

The method effectively models trust in international relations.

Case study on US-UK relations demonstrates practical application.

Supports decision-making in government foreign policy and defense.

Abstract

This paper presents a trust computation for international relations and its calculus, which related to Bayesian inference, Dempster Shafer theory and subjective logic. We proposed a method that allows a trust computation which is previously subjective and incomputable. An example of case study for the trust computation is the United States of America Great Britain relations. The method supports decision makers in a government such as foreign ministry, defense ministry, presidential or prime minister office. The Department of Defense (DoD) may use our method to determine a nation that can be known as a friendly, neutral or hostile nation.