A Modified SEIR Model for the Spread of Ebola in Western Africa and Metrics for Resource Allocation

TL;DR

This paper introduces a modified SEIR model tailored for the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, incorporating hospitalization and deceased interactions, and proposes metrics for resource allocation based on sensitivity analysis.

Contribution

It develops a new deterministic SEIR model that accounts for hospitalization and deceased interactions, and introduces metrics to prioritize resource distribution during Ebola outbreaks.

Findings

Model fits WHO data on infected and deceased cases

Sensitivity metrics identify key factors influencing outbreak dynamics

Proposed metrics aid in resource allocation decisions

Abstract

A modified, deterministic SEIR model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemic occurring in the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model describes the dynamical interaction of susceptible and infected populations, while accounting for the effects of hospitalization and the spread of disease through interactions with deceased, but infectious, individuals. Using data from the World Health Organization (WHO), parameters within the model are fit to recent estimates of infected and deceased cases from each nation. The model is then analyzed using these parameter values. Finally, several metrics are proposed to determine which of these nations is in greatest need of additional resources to combat the spread of infection. These include local and global sensitivity metrics of both the infected population and the basic reproduction number with respect to rates of hospitalization and proper burial.