Knowing the unknowns: uncertainties in simple estimators of galactic dynamical masses

TL;DR

This study evaluates the accuracy of simple dynamical mass estimators for galaxies using cosmological simulations, revealing intrinsic uncertainties and proposing a new estimator for improved precision.

Contribution

The paper tests existing mass estimators with simulations and introduces a new, more accurate estimator that reduces scatter in mass measurements of dispersion-supported galaxies.

Findings

Mass estimators recover galaxy masses with ~23-25% scatter.

Shape of stellar distribution is the main source of uncertainty.

New estimator reduces scatter to 20%, improving accuracy.

Abstract

The observed stellar kinematics of dispersion-supported galaxies are often used to measure dynamical masses. Recently, several analytical relationships between the stellar line-of-sight velocity dispersion, the projected (2D) or deprojected (3D) half-light radius, and the total mass enclosed within the half-light radius, relying on the spherical Jeans equation, have been proposed. Here, we make use of the APOSTLE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of the Local Group to test the validity and accuracy of such mass estimators for both dispersion and rotation-supported galaxies, for field and satellite galaxies, and for galaxies of varying masses, shapes, and velocity dispersion anisotropies. We find that the mass estimators of Walker et al. and Wolf et al. are able to recover the masses of dispersion-dominated systems with little systematic bias, but with a 1-sigma scatter of 25 and 23 percent, respectively. The error on the estimated mass is dominated by the impact of the 3D shape of the stellar mass distribution, which is difficult to constrain observationally. This intrinsic scatter becomes the dominant source of uncertainty in the masses estimated for galaxies like the dwarf spheroidal (dSph) satellites of the Milky Way, where the observational errors in their sizes and velocity dispersions are small. Such scatter may also affect the inner density slopes of dSphs derived from multiple stellar populations, relaxing the significance with which Navarro-Frenk-White profiles may be excluded, depending on the degree to which the relevant properties of the different stellar populations are correlated. Finally, we derive a new optimal mass estimator that removes the residual biases and achieves a statistically significant reduction in the scatter to 20 percent overall for dispersion-dominated galaxies, allowing more precise and accurate mass estimates.