Modeling the dynamics of dissent

TL;DR

This paper models how dissenting opinions spread in authoritarian societies, revealing that network structure and authority distribution critically influence dissent dynamics and time to reach consensus.

Contribution

It introduces a novel opinion dynamics model incorporating authority levels, confidence, and opinion override, analyzing their effects on dissent spread in social networks.

Findings

Dissent spreads more easily with less heterogeneity in authority.

Positive correlation between authority and connectivity suppresses dissent.

Network structure and agent heterogeneity significantly affect spreading time.

Abstract

We investigate the formation of opinion against authority in an authoritarian society composed of agents with different levels of authority. We explore a "dissenting" opinion, held by lower-ranking, obedient, or less authoritative people, spreading in an environment of an "affirmative" opinion held by authoritative leaders. A real-world example would be a corrupt society where people revolt against such leaders, but it can be applied to more general situations. In our model, agents can change their opinion depending on their authority relative to their neighbors and their own confidence level. In addition, with a certain probability, agents can override the affirmative opinion to take the dissenting opinion of a neighbor. Based on analytic derivation and numerical simulations, we observe that both the network structure and heterogeneity in authority, and their correlation, significantly affect the possibility of the dissenting opinion to spread through the population. In particular, the dissenting opinion is suppressed when the authority distribution is very heterogeneous and there exists a positive correlation between the authority and the number of neighbors of people (degree). Except for such an extreme case, though, spreading of the dissenting opinion takes place when people have the tendency to override the authority to hold the dissenting opinion, but the dissenting opinion can take a long time to spread to the entire society, depending on the model parameters. We argue that the internal social structure of agents sets the scale of the time to reach consensus, based on the analysis of the underlying structural properties of opinion spreading.