Approaches to Modeling Insurgency

TL;DR

This paper reviews various qualitative and quantitative models of insurgency and presents a detailed case study of an agent-based model predicting support trends during the Northern Ireland Troubles.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive overview of insurgency modeling approaches and provides a novel agent-based model using SCIPR to predict support dynamics in a historical conflict.

Findings

Agent-based model accurately predicted election support trends

Model incorporated cultural identities and agent interactions

Simulation results closely matched historical data

Abstract

This paper begins with an introduction to qualitative theories and models of insurgency, quantitative measures of insurgency, influence diagrams, system dynamics models of insurgency, agent based molding of insurgency, human-in-the-loop wargaming of insurgency, and statistical models of insurgency. The paper then presents a detailed case study of an agent-based model that focuses on the Troubles in Northern Ireland starting in 1968. The model is agent-based and uses a modeling tool called Simulation of Cultural Identities for Prediction of Reactions (SCIPR). The objective in this modeling effort was to predict trends in the degree of population's support to parties in this conflict. The case studies describes in detail the agents, their actions, model initialization and simulation process, and the results of the simulation compared to actual historical results of elections.