Stability analysis of thermo-acoustic nonlinear eigenproblems in annular combustors. Part II. Uncertainty quantification

TL;DR

This paper combines Monte Carlo and Active Subspace Identification with adjoint sensitivities to efficiently quantify the uncertainty in thermo-acoustic stability of annular combustors, significantly reducing computational effort.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach that integrates adjoint sensitivities with uncertainty quantification methods for analyzing combustor stability.

Findings

Adjoint approach reduces eigenproblem calculations by up to an order of magnitude.

The method effectively estimates the probability of system instability.

Uncertainty quantification provides valuable risk assessment for combustor design.

Abstract

Monte Carlo and Active Subspace Identification methods are combined with first- and second-order adjoint sensitivities to perform (forward) uncertainty quantification analysis of the thermo-acoustic stability of two annular combustor configurations. This method is applied to evaluate the risk factor, i.e., the probability for the system to be unstable. It is shown that the adjoint approach reduces the number of nonlinear-eigenproblem calculations by up to $\sim\mathcal{O}(M)$, as many as the Monte Carlo samples.