Step by Step to Peace in Syria

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the ethnic geography of Syria and suggests that establishing local autonomy and safe zones could reduce conflict and promote peace, based on prior research on ethnic patches and conflict mitigation.

Contribution

It proposes a practical approach of creating safe zones and local autonomy to address Syria's complex ethnic conflicts and promote stability.

Findings

Ethnic patches of 20-60 km diameter correlate with conflict likelihood.

Local autonomy can reduce conflict and promote peace.

Creating safe zones can serve as a step towards comprehensive stability.

Abstract

The revolution and Civil War in Syria has led to substantial death and suffering, a massive refugee crisis, and growth of ISIS extremism and its terror attacks globally. Conflict between disparate groups is ongoing. Complex ethnic geography is a central reason for the large number of different groups in conflict as this geography leads to local allegiances that do not aggregate at the national scale. We have previously demonstrated that, where ethnic groups exist in geographic patches of 20-60 km in diameter, there is a high probability of conflict. We have also shown that establishing local autonomy through subnational boundaries (as is found in Switzerland) is a means of alleviating conflict. Our analysis suggests that providing some level of local autonomy to the ethnic groups would reduce the impetus for local conflict and could serve as a basis for peace and stability. Here we propose that interventions should be pursued to stop specific individual local conflicts, creating safe zones, that can be expanded gradually and serve as examples for achieving a comprehensive solution for safety, peace and stable local governance in Syria.