Large deviations for infectious diseases models
Peter Kratz, Etienne Pardoux
TL;DR
This paper develops large deviation estimates for Poisson-driven infectious disease models and applies these results to analyze the time until the system exits the endemic equilibrium basin, exemplified by the SIRS model.
Contribution
It introduces large deviation estimates for Poisson-driven models and applies them to the classical SIRS model to analyze disease dynamics.
Findings
Large deviation estimates for Poisson-driven models.
Application to the SIRS model's exit time analysis.
Insights into disease persistence and extinction times.
Abstract
We establish large deviation estimates for Poisson driven models of infectious disease, and apply those estimates to the time of exit from the basin of attraction of an endemic equilibrium. We apply our results to the classical SIRS model.
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Taxonomy
TopicsMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Viral Infections and Immunology Research