Interception efficiency of CVM-based lightning protection systems for buildings and the fractional Poisson model

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the efficiency of CVM-based lightning protection systems for buildings by analyzing count data and introduces a fractional Poisson process model to better capture the bursty nature of lightning strikes.

Contribution

It combines statistical analysis of real data with a novel fractional Poisson model to improve understanding of lightning strike patterns and protection system effectiveness.

Findings

CVM-based systems show variable efficiency across sites.

Fractional Poisson model captures lightning burstiness better than standard models.

Statistical analysis supports the validity of the new modeling approach.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to resolve a question regarding efficiency of a lightning protection system (LPS) for buildings based on the collection volume method (CVM) . The paper has two components. The first, following suggestions of other authors [Abidin and Ibrahim 2004], takes advantage of count data from installed devices, and independent installation-site inspections to develop our statistical analysis. The second component investigates the validity of the underlying theory by introducing a novel methodology of fractional Poisson processes, which are able to reproduce the burstiness of lightning strikes, an essential feature of stochastic time dependence of incidence of lightning strikes. The standard Poisson processes used in the past efforts in this area cannot do that.