Terrestrial planets across space and time

TL;DR

This paper models the distribution and age of terrestrial planets across cosmic history, estimating their total numbers and examining factors affecting their habitability and detection prospects.

Contribution

It introduces a coupled semi-analytic model linking galaxy formation to planet occurrence, providing a comprehensive cosmic inventory of terrestrial planets and their ages.

Findings

Mean age of terrestrial planets: 7-8 Gyr in the local Universe.

Estimated total terrestrial planets: ~10^19 around FGK stars, ~5x10^20 around M stars.

Less than 10% of terrestrial planets are affected by hot Jupiters.

Abstract

The study of cosmology, galaxy formation and exoplanets has now advanced to a stage where a cosmic inventory of terrestrial planets may be attempted. By coupling semi-analytic models of galaxy formation to a recipe that relates the occurrence of planets to the mass and metallicity of their host stars, we trace the population of terrestrial planets around both solar-mass (FGK type) and lower-mass (M dwarf) stars throughout all of cosmic history. We find that the mean age of terrestrial planets in the local Universe is $7\pm{}1$ Gyr for FGK hosts and $8\pm{}1$ Gyr for M dwarfs. We estimate that hot Jupiters have depleted the population of terrestrial planets around FGK stars by no more than $\approx 10\%$, and that only $\approx 10\%$ of the terrestrial planets at the current epoch are orbiting stars in a metallicity range for which such planets have yet to be confirmed. The typical terrestrial planet in the local Universe is located in a spheroid-dominated galaxy with a total stellar mass comparable to that of the Milky Way. When looking at the inventory of planets throughout the whole observable Universe, we argue for a total of $\approx 1\times 10^{19}$ and $\approx 5\times 10^{20}$ terrestrial planets around FGK and M stars, respectively. Due to light travel time effects, the terrestrial planets on our past light cone exhibit a mean age of just $1.7\pm 0.2$ Gyr. These results are discussed in the context of cosmic habitability, the Copernican principle and searches for extraterrestrial intelligence at cosmological distances.