Dynamical prediction of flu seasonality driven by ambient temperature: influenza vs. common cold

TL;DR

This study models influenza and common cold seasonality in the Netherlands using temperature-driven SIRS equations, showing potential for cold prediction but not for influenza, and discusses their differing dynamics based on clinical insights.

Contribution

It introduces a temperature-driven SIRS modeling approach to compare influenza and cold seasonality, highlighting differences in their predictability and underlying kinetics.

Findings

Cold can be forecasted using the model, influenza cannot.

Temperature significantly influences common cold dynamics.

Differences in kinetics are explained through clinical context.

Abstract

This work presents a comparative analysis of Influenzanet data for influenza itself and common cold in the Netherlands during the last 5 years, from the point of view of modelling by linearised SIRS equations parametrically driven by the ambient temperature. It is argued that this approach allows for the forecast of common cold, but not of influenza in a strict sense. The difference in their kinetic models is discussed with reference to the clinical background.