Imminent earthquake forecasting on the basis of Japan INTERMAGNET stations, NEIC, NOAA and Tide code data analysis

TL;DR

This paper proposes a method for imminent earthquake prediction using geomagnetic data from Japan stations, employing an inverse problem approach with a new variable Schtm to estimate earthquake parameters.

Contribution

It introduces a novel geomagnetic quake approach utilizing the Schtm variable for regional earthquake forecasting based on multiple monitoring stations.

Findings

Successful analysis of geomagnetic data from Japanese stations.

Formulation of an inverse problem for earthquake parameter estimation.

Potential for real-time regional earthquake prediction.

Abstract

This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, the radon surface concentration, the local heat flow, the ionosphere variables, the low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. In this study only geomagnetic data are used. Within the framework of geomagnetic quake approach it is possible to perform an imminent regional seismic activity forecasting on the basis of simple analysis of geomagnetic data which use a new variable Schtm with dimension surface density of energy. Such analysis of Memambetsu, Kakioka, Kanoya (Japan, INTERMAGNET) stations and NEIC earthquakes data, the hypothesis that the predicted earthquake is this with bigest value of the variable Schtm permit to formulate an inverse problem (overdetermined algebraic system) for precursors signals like a functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and distance from a monitoring point. Thus, in the case of data acquisition network system existence, which includes monitoring of more than one reliable precursor variables in at least four points distributed within the area with a radius of up to 700 km, there will be enough algebraic equations for calculation of impending earthquake magnitude, depth and distance, solving the overdetermined algebraic system.