A Simple extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect

TL;DR

This paper extends dematerialization theory to include technical progress and rebound effects, and empirically finds that material consumption has not decreased despite technological advances, challenging reliance on technological change alone.

Contribution

It introduces simple quantitative extensions to dematerialization theory and empirically analyzes material and cost trends across multiple cases.

Findings

No evidence of dematerialization in examined cases.

Technical progress alone does not reduce material consumption.

Demand rebound offsets efficiency gains.

Abstract

Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed to produce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derives from ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted by demand rebound - increases in usage because of increased value (or decreased cost) that also results from increasing technical performance. A major question then is to what extent technological performance improvement can offset and is offsetting continuously increasing economic consumption. This paper contributes to answering this question by offering some simple quantitative extensions to the theory of dematerialization. The paper then empirically examines the materials consumption trends as well as cost trends for a large set of materials and a few modern artifacts over the past decades. In each of 57 cases examined, the particular combinations of demand elasticity and technical performance rate improvement are not consistent with dematerialization. Overall, the theory extension and empirical examination indicate that there is no dematerialization occurring even for cases of information technology with rapid technical progress. Thus, a fully passive policy stance that relies on unfettered technological change is not supported by our results.