The latent state hazard model, with application to wind turbine reliability

TL;DR

This paper introduces a latent state hazard model for wind turbine reliability that distinguishes between internal degradation and external environmental effects, aiding better maintenance decisions.

Contribution

The paper proposes a novel reliability model that separates internal vulnerability from external influences, validated with real wind turbine data.

Findings

Effective identification of internal degradation states

Improved understanding of external environmental impacts

Enhanced decision-making for turbine maintenance

Abstract

We present a new model for reliability analysis that is able to distinguish the latent internal vulnerability state of the equipment from the vulnerability caused by temporary external sources. Consider a wind farm where each turbine is running under the external effects of temperature, wind speed and direction, etc. The turbine might fail because of the external effects of a spike in temperature. If it does not fail during the temperature spike, it could still fail due to internal degradation, and the spike could cause (or be an indication of) this degradation. The ability to identify the underlying latent state can help better understand the effects of external sources and thus lead to more robust decision-making. We present an experimental study using SCADA sensor measurements from wind turbines in Italy.