Patterns of mast fruiting - a stochastic approach

TL;DR

This study uses a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation to analyze whether synchronized mast fruiting in trees can occur by chance, finding that periodicity influences but does not solely cause masting.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic modeling approach to assess the role of randomness and periodicity in mast fruiting synchronization.

Findings

Periodic fruiting patterns do not by themselves cause masting.

Stochastic factors significantly influence mast synchronization.

Periodicities shape but do not determine reproductive synchronization.

Abstract

Mast fruiting represents a synchronous population behaviour which can spread on large landscape areas. This reproductive pattern is generally perceived as a synchronous periodic production of large seed crops and has a significant practical importance to forest natural regeneration in order to synchronize cuttings. The mechanisms of masting are still argued and models of this phenomenon are uncommon, so a stochastic approach can cast significant light on some particular aspects. Trees manage to get synchronized and coordinate their reproductive routines. But is it possible that trees get synchronized by chance, absolutely random? Using a Monte Carlo simulation of seeding years and a theoretical masting pattern, a stochastic analysis is performed in order to assess the chance of random mast fruiting. Two populations of 100 trees, with different fruiting periodicity of 2-3 years and 4-6 years, were set and the fruition dynamic was simulated for 100 years. The results show that periodicity itself cannot induce by chance the masting effect, but periodicity mathematically influences the reproductive pattern.