On the Dynamics of Dengue Virus type 2 with Residence Times and Vertical Transmission

TL;DR

This paper presents a mathematical model for Dengue virus type 2 that incorporates vertical transmission and human dispersal between regions, providing insights into disease persistence and control strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel two-patch model with residence times and vertical transmission, analyzing their effects on dengue dynamics.

Findings

Dispersal influences disease persistence and eradication.

Vertical transmission impacts outbreak severity.

Model applied to 2002 Colima dengue outbreak.

Abstract

A two-patch mathematical model of Dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that accounts for vectors' vertical transmission and between patches human dispersal is introduced. Dispersal is modeled via a Lagrangian approach. A host-patch residence-times basic reproduction number is derived and conditions under which the disease dies out or persists are established. Analytical and numerical results highlight the role of hosts' dispersal in mitigating or exacerbating disease dynamics. The framework is used to explore dengue dynamics using, as a starting point, the 2002 outbreak in the state of Colima, Mexico.