Econo- and socio- physics based remarks on the economical growth of the World

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the long-term and short-term trends of global economic growth using econophysics and sociophysics, highlighting exponential and power-law behaviors and discussing future prospects.

Contribution

It introduces a physics-inspired approach to model economic growth, emphasizing the significance of reference baseline years and linking economic trends to biological growth models.

Findings

World GDP follows exponential growth with a crossover in 1973.

Standard & Poor's index shows exponential behavior extending to the 19th century.

Recent data reveals emergence of power-law dependence in economic indicators.

Abstract

It has been shown that the long term evolution of the Gross Product of the World after World War II can be well portrayed by the exponential function with the crossover at the year 1973, cinsiding with the Oil Crisis onset. For the the Standard and Poor 500 index the single exponential behavior extends down to at least the mid of the nineteen century. It is notable that the detailed short-term insight focused on the last quarter of century revealed the emergence of the power like dependence. However, such dependences can be introduced only when taking into account the behavior at reference-baselines years. The possible relationship to the growth/death evolution of microorganisms is also discussed. The report proposes the new discussion of the past and nowadays time of the global economy. It recalls econonophysics and sociophysics as disciplines within which the effective parameterization of trends is possible. Finally, possible future trends are discussed.