Marginalising instrument systematics in HST WFC3 transit lightcurves

TL;DR

This paper applies a marginalisation technique to HST WFC3 transit lightcurves to better account for instrument systematics, improving the accuracy of exoplanet transmission spectra and facilitating more reliable atmospheric comparisons.

Contribution

It introduces a systematic marginalisation approach using AIC-based evidence to analyze HST WFC3 transit data, enhancing the robustness of exoplanet atmospheric measurements.

Findings

Most models favor linear time trend corrections.

Spectroscopic wavelength shifts best describe systematics.

Fast scan observations require additional processing.

Abstract

Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) infrared observations at 1.1-1.7$\mu$m probe primarily the H$_2$O absorption band at 1.4$\mu$m, and has provided low resolution transmission spectra for a wide range of exoplanets. We present the application of marginalisation based on Gibson (2014) to analyse exoplanet transit lightcurves obtained from HST WFC3, to better determine important transit parameters such as R$_p$/R$_*$, important for accurate detections of H$_2$O. We approximate the evidence, often referred to as the marginal likelihood, for a grid of systematic models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). We then calculate the evidence-based weight assigned to each systematic model and use the information from all tested models to calculate the final marginalised transit parameters for both the band-integrated, and spectroscopic lightcurves to construct the transmission spectrum. We find that a majority of the highest weight models contain a correction for a linear trend in time, as well as corrections related to HST orbital phase. We additionally test the dependence on the shift in spectral wavelength position over the course of the observations and find that spectroscopic wavelength shifts $\delta_\lambda(\lambda)$, best describe the associated systematic in the spectroscopic lightcurves for most targets, while fast scan rate observations of bright targets require an additional level of processing to produce a robust transmission spectrum. The use of marginalisation allows for transparent interpretation and understanding of the instrument and the impact of each systematic evaluated statistically for each dataset, expanding the ability to make true and comprehensive comparisons between exoplanet atmospheres.