A Predictive Model using the Markov Property

TL;DR

This paper presents a method to verify the Markov property in data sets and demonstrates how to use this property for accurate future value prediction with probability 1.

Contribution

It introduces a procedure to test for the Markov property in data and leverages it for reliable future value predictions.

Findings

Method to test Markov property in data sets

Demonstration of prediction accuracy using the Markov property

Theoretical proof of prediction with probability 1

Abstract

Given a data set of numerical values which are sampled from some unknown probability distribution, we will show how to check if the data set exhibits the Markov property and we will show how to use the Markov property to predict future values from the same distribution, with probability 1.