Effect of salinity and fish predation on zooplankton dynamics in Hooghly-Matla estuarine system, India

TL;DR

This study develops and analyzes a mathematical model to understand how salinity and fish predation influence zooplankton dynamics in the Hooghly-Matla estuarine system, combining analytical and numerical methods with real data.

Contribution

The paper introduces a salinity-based PZF model with Holling type-II response, analyzing stability and bifurcations to understand zooplankton and fish interactions in the estuary.

Findings

Identified salinity ranges supporting fish populations.

Determined conditions for Hopf bifurcations in the system.

Validated the model with real data from the estuary.

Abstract

The Hooghly-Matla estuarine complex is the unique estuarine system of the world. Nutrient from the litterfall enrich the adjacent estuary through tidal influence which in turn regulate the phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish population dynamics. Environmental factors regulate the biotic components of the system, among which salinity plays a leading role in the regulation of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish dynamics of the estuary. In this article, a $PZF$ model is considered with Holling type-II response function. The present model considers salinity based equations on plankton dynamics of the estuary. The interior equilibrium is considered as the most important equilibrium state of this model. The model equations are solved both analytically and numerically using the real data base of Hooghly-Matla estuarine system. The essential mathematical features of the present model have been analyzed thorough local and global stability and the bifurcations arising in some selected situations. A combination of set of values of the salinity of the estuary are identified that helped to determine the sustenance of fish population in the system. The ranges of salinity under which the system undergoes Hopf bifurcation are determined. Numerical illustrations are performed in order to validate the applicability of the model under consideration.